| Posted: Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 | Comments (0)

Could 2010 Election Be Like 1994?

By: Constitution Staff

With the recent fall in the polls of President Barack Obama, the 2010 elections are shaping up as a possible repeat of 1994, when the Republican Party nationally and in Oklahoma made huge gains.

In 1994, Republican nominee Frank Keating crushed his Democrat opponent for governor by 16 points, Jim Inhofe easily defeated Democrat Congressman David McCurdy in the U.S. Senate race, Tom Coburn won the second congressional district race, J. C. Watts, Jr. won the fourth congressional district contest, and Mary Fallin won the lieutenant governor’s office.

Since 1950, the pattern has been clear: whichever party wins the presidency usually loses the governorship two years later. With the colorless Brad Henry term-limited in 2010, Republicans are salivating at the prospect of capturing the governor’s mansion next year.

Two Republicans are presently vying for the chance to carry the Republican standard. The early favorite in the race is U.S. House member Mary Fallin, but her primary opposition, state Senator Randy Brogdon is mounting a spirited campaign. Some believe it similar to the situation in 1980, when state Senator Don Nickles was given little chance in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, but won over two very wealthy opponents, John Zink and Ed Noble. Fallin’s vote for the bailout in the fall of 2008 is expected to be a point of contention in the race.

On the Democrat side, Attorney General Drew Edmondson is facing Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins. Edmondson is known as a very partisan attorney general who has been accused of using his office in a very heavy-handed way against political opponents. Askins has a much “kinder and gentler” image, but is still considered a liberal Democrat. During the time she served as a member of the Oklahoma House she earned only a 21 percent Conservative Index rating.

In the U.S. Senate race, Tom Coburn is running again, and is heavily favored. Despite his vote for the bailout, his conservative positions on most other issues, which rank him as one of the most conservative voting members of the Senate, make it highly unlikely he will face any significant Republican or Democrat challenge.

The lieutenant governor’s office and attorney general’s office will both be open, with Edmondson and Askins running for governor.

Republican Ryan Leonard is a potential candidate for attorney general. Leonard is the son-in-law of former Governor Frank Keating, and the son of federal judge Tim Leonard. Former State Senator Scott Pruitt (R-Broken Arrow) is managing partner of the Oklahoma City Redhawks baseball team and is giving serious thought to making the race. Pruitt who served two terms in the Senate (69% Conservative rating) made an unsuccessful race for the GOP nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2006. State GOP Committeeman James Dunn, who was the 2006 Republican nominee for Attorney General against Drew Edmondson, has not ruled out making another run for the post.
State Sen. Ken Corn (D- Poteau) is term-limited and has announced for lieutenant governor. He has only a 22% cumulative score on the Oklahoma Conservative Index. On the Republican side, three state legislators are either formally announced or actively campaigning. State Representative John Wright of Broken Arrow is a solid conservative with a 92% Conservative Index rating. Another member of the Oklahoma House, Colby Schwartz of Yukon is making the race. He has a 75% Conservative score. The third Republican is state Sen. Todd Lamb of Edmond, who has a 65% Conservative rating.

Following Fallin’s announcement for governor, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey quickly became an announced candidate. Calvey served from 1998-2006 in the Oklahoma Legislature where he earned a 78% Conservative Index rating. He was a candidate in the crowded Republican primary in 2006, when Fallin won the seat. Calvey deployed with the Army National Guard to Baghdad, Iraq during the 2007 troop surge and was awarded the Bronze Star Medal for his service.

Johnny B. Roy, an Edmond surgeon, also made the race in 2006 and is reported to be in again. Also, State Rep. Mike Thompson, who served as an aide to Congressman Ernest Istook when he held the seat and is now in the real estate business, has joined the race. He has a 76% Conservative score. Another possible candidate mentioned is Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, who lost the runoff for the seat to Fallin in 2006. It looks like it could again be a crowed Republican field.

Congressman Dan Boren in the second district, the only Democrat in the Oklahoma delegation, will be opposed by Republican Dan Arnett, 25, of Henryetta. Two Republican Congressmen could face primary opposition. Conservative R.J. Harris, an Iraq war veteran, plans to oppose Congressman Tom Cole. Harris lives in Norman and is a law student at the University of Oklahoma. Harris was motivated to make the race primarily because of Cole’s vote for the bailout in the fall of 2008. Congressman John Sullivan, who took a one month leave of absence from Congress to battle alcohol abdication, may pick up a challenger. One candidate mentioned is former state Sen. James Williamson of Tulsa, 64% Conservative rating.

Jason Reese, a moderate Republican who has roundly criticized state Rep. Randy Terrill’s attempts to restrict the flood of illegal immigration, has filed papers to run for the post of Labor Commissioner. The post is currently held by Democrat Lloyd Fields.

Former State Senator, Owen Laughlin filed with the Ethics Commission to explore a run for State Treasurer. Laughlin has been considering a run for State Treasurer because of the huge waste he saw during his tenure in the State Senate. He became Co-Floor Leader of the Senate during the two years that the Senate was tied. Laughlin was in the banking business for 20 years. It is rumored that the Democrat incumbent, Scott Meachum, may not run.

Former state Senator Kathleen Wilcoxson has been mentioned as a strong possibility to run for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. The incumbent is Democrat Sandy Garrett.

With the official filing period for the 2010 elections less than one year away, more candidates will be testing the water or officially announcing their intentions.

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