Oklahoma Presidential Primary Election
Among the Democrats is perennial candidate Jim Rogers, 76, of Midwest City, Oklahoma. Rogers is a frequent name on the Oklahoma ballot, having run for numerous national and state offices over the years. Two years ago he won the Democrat nomination for the U.S. Senate and was defeated by the Republican nominee, Senator Tom Coburn.
The other Democrats are Bob Ely, 53, of Lake Forest, Illinois; Darcy Richardson, 56, of Jacksonville, Florida; and Randall Terry, 52, of Purgitsville, West Virginia. Terry is the pro-life activist who founded "Operation Rescue" known for blocking the entrances of abortion clinics with protestors. Richardson is a progressive Democrat who authored books on presidential campaigns. Years ago he headed the liberal "New Democrats" organization. Ely is running on the odd platform of lower federal spending and higher taxes to deal with the federal deficit.
The Republican contenders include Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 55, of Stillwater, Minnesota; former Georgia Congressman and U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 68, of McLean, Virginia; former Gov. Jon Huntsman, 51, of Salt Lake City, Utah.; Congressman Ron Paul, 76, of Lake Jackson, Texas; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 61, of Austin; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 64, of Belmont; and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, 53, of Great Falls, Virginia.
As we write this (just after the South Carolina primary), it was not clear how many of the GOP candidates would still be in contention when Sooners get their chance to vote. Michele Bachmann dropped out of the presidential race following a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses. Jon Huntsman laterally moved to New Hampshire and staked his campaign on a win in the nation's first primary. In the end, Huntsman had to settle for a third place showing which he declared to be a "ticket to South Carolina." But, after a week of campaigning in South Carolina, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Romney.
After his poor showing in the Iowa, Gov. Rick Perry reevaluated his campaign, but quickly decided to continue through the South Carolina primary. He chose to bypassed New Hampshire, where he ended up finishing in sixth place, in order to concentrate on a come back in South Carolina. But, just a few days before the South Carolina vote, he bowed out and endorsed Gingrich.
After coming on strong prior to the Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich was knocked down to a fourth place showing following a heavy negative campaign orchestrated by backers of Romney. He finished fifth in the New Hampshire primary and responded with his own negative campaign against Romney. His first place finish first in South Carolina gave new life to his campaign.
Following a respectable third place showing in Iowa, Ron Paul finished a solid second place in New Hampshire. He came in fourth in South Carolina. Paul could be in the race to the end, even if he is unable to stay near the top. He may continue the campaign in order to influence the platform and promote his message to a national audience watching the national convention.
There is no question that Mitt Romney will remain a contender until the end. He has the money and organization to stay in for the long haul. Following a narrow loss in Iowa, he had a solid win in New Hampshire. But, his second place showing in South Carolina removed him as the perceived likely nominee. As the slate of "anti-Romney" candidates thins and conservatives gravitate around one or two candidates, his grasp on the nomination is less certain..
Rick Santorum campaigned longer than anyone else in Iowa, banking on a solid showing there to propel him to the top tier of candidates. That strategy worked with Santorum finishing in first place when the final results were certified. While his campaign had a major influx of cash in the days following the caucuses, it did not come in time for New Hampshire which followed Iowa by only a week. It was too late to make media buys or hire staff to have a significant impact there and he finished in fourth place. He had more time to use his new found resources to be competitive in South Carolina, where he finished in third place. If he does not do well in Florida, he could be out before the Oklahoma vote.
Only a handful of states will have contests, mostly caucuses, between January 31 and March 6. It is likely that the Republican nomination will still be in play by March 6. In fact, because of the number of states involved on that date, it could be the decisive event that promoters originally intended.
The presidential contests on March 6 are the big event historically known as "Super Tuesday." In the past, the one-day cluster of contests was considered the climax of the presidential race. Super Tuesday reached a peak in 2008 when 24 states held contests on the same Tuesday in February. But in 2012, the contest will include just eleven states. In addition to Oklahoma, the states holding presidential primary elections this year are Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming. Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota will hold caucuses on that date. Texas was to hold their primary on March 6, but had to postpone until April due to a challenge of their redistricting plan.
The phrase "Super Tuesday' was first used to describe the primary elections that took place on March 8, 1988 in the Southern states of Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia. Southern Democrats developed the idea of a regional primary in an effort to nominate a moderate candidate who would more closely represent their interests. But, their plan ultimately failed when Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, and Michael Dukakis split the Super Tuesday primaries, and Dukakis was eventually nominated.
The reasons for the reduced participation in 2012 are varied. This year, some Republican-leaning Red states are looking for greater influence on the GOP race by moving up their contest dates. Meanwhile, Democrat-leaning Blue states are pushing their contests back in an effort to extend the Republican battle as long as possible, hoping to help the Democratic incumbent. Also, with the "Great Recession" straining state government budgets, some states are canceling their separate presidential primaries and consolidating them with statewide elections to save money. If Oklahoma had taken that route, the primary would not be until June 26.
Another factor in reducing Super Tuesday participation is Republican National Committee (RNC) rules forbidding any state other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina from holding a primary before March 6. States that violate the RNC rule are subject to losing half their delegates to the Republican Convention in Tampa, Florida, next August.
Meanwhile, many states shifted their contest to later dates to accommodate another GOP rule that prohibits states voting prior to April 1 from awarding their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Some states turn their event into a high-stakes contest by giving all their delegates to the winner in the hope of gaining more attention. Unless they hold off until after April 1, proportional representation must be used to divvy up each state's delegates.
But the GOP rule changes did not work out the way schedule makers wanted. Rather than a February start in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Florida's decision to sacrifice half their delegates and hold its primary on January 31 caused the early-voting states to move forward a month to stay ahead.
Despite the reduced participation this year, Super Tuesday is still the one election day with the most states involved. Failure to do well in this multi-state event could be the end of the campaign for several candidates, and might seal the nomination for the leading candidate.
To win the nomination a candidate needs the votes of 1,144 of the 2,286 delegates to the Republican National Convention. Oklahoma will have 43 of those delegates, with 40 being allocated to presidential contenders in the Oklahoma Presidential Primary. The remaining three delegates are party leaders including the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Oklahoma's Republican Party.
The delegates allocated by the primary will be determined by the strength of each of the candidates in the election. Fifteen delegates will be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the five congressional districts -- each congressional district is assigned three delegates. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all three delegates in the district. If more than one candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives two delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives one delegate. If no candidate receives more than 15%, the top three vote-getters each receive one delegate. There are 25 at-large delegates which are to be allocated vote in the primary statewide. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all of the at-large delegates. Otherwise, delegates are proportionally allocated to those candidates receiving more than 15% of the vote.
The actual people serving as delegates (except the three party leaders) will be determined at District Conventions in March and April, and at the State Republican Convention scheduled for May 12. Delegates to the national convention are bound until released. Each delegate must cast their vote on all ballots for the candidate for which they are allocated. If that candidate is no longer a candidate, the delegate may cast their vote for the candidate of their choice.
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