GOP Expected to Retain Control of Legislature

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GOP Expected to Retain Control of Legislature

Even before the first vote is cast in the 2014 elections, Republicans are already assured of maintaining control of one chamber of the Legislature and are only a few seats away from control in the other chamber. Not only is continued Republican control almost certain, most observers expect the GOP to reinforce their numbers.

The candidate filing period this year was April 9-11. Oklahoma's Primary Election date is the last Tuesday in June, which will be June 24 this year. For those seats in which no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the Runoff Primary Election will be held on the last Tuesday of August. The date this year will be August 26. The General Election will be held November 4.

A number of legislators were not able to run for reelection as a result of term-limits. Legislators are limited to a total combined service in the House and/or Senate of 12 years. Term-limited Representatives include: Don Armes (R-Faxon), Gus Blackwell (R-Laverne), Dale DeWitt (R-Braman), Joe Dorman (D-Rush Springs), Rebecca Hamilton (D-Oklahoma City), Mike Reynolds (R-Oklahoma City), and John Trebilcock (R-Broken Arrow). Term-limited Senators are: Cliff Aldridge (R-Choctaw), Cliff Branan (R-Oklahoma City), Harry Coates (R-Seminole), and Jerry Ellis (D-Valliant).

Some of the term-limited legislators are seeking a higher office. Rep. Dorman is the Democrat candidate for Governor (no other Democrats filed). Sen. Branan is running for the Republican nomination to the open seat on the Corporation Commission.

A number of other legislators decided simply not to run, including several in leadership positions. Rep. Mike Jackson (R-Enid) lost the race to replace Rep. T.W. Shannon as House Speaker and did not file for reelection to the House. Senator Sean Burrage (D-Claremore), the Senate Minority Leader, decided to call it quits, along with Senator Roger Ballenger (D-Okmulgee), the Assistant Minority Floor Leader. Senator Rob Johnson (R-Kingfisher), the Senate Majority Assistant Floor Leader also decided not to run again. Others choosing not to run include Rep. Larry Glenn (D-Miami), Rep. Arthur Hulbert (R-Fort Gibson), Rep. Fred Jordan (R-Jenks), Rep. Steve Martin (R-Bartlesville), Rep. Skye McNiel (R-Bristow), Rep. Colby Schwartz (R-Yukon), and Sen. Tom Ivester (D-Sayre).

Other legislators are seeking higher office rather than running for reelection to the Legislature. Former Speaker of the House, Rep. T.W. Shannon (R-Lawton), is running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Coburn. Sen. Constance Johnson (D-Oklahoma City) is also running for the Coburn seat. Rep. Anastasia Pittman (D-Oklahoma City) is running for the seat being vacated by Sen. Johnson. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Edmond) is running for the Fifth District seat being vacated by Congressman James Lankford who is also running for Sen. Coburn's seat. Sen. Al McAffrey (D-Oklahoma City) is also running for the seat being vacated by Congressman Lankford. Rep. Kay Floyd (D-Oklahoma City) is running for the seat that Sen. McAffrey is vacating. Rep. Marty Quinn (R-Claremore ) filed for the open Senate District 46 seat being vacated by Sen. Burrrage. Rep. Jason Smalley (R-Stroud ) is running for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Coates. Rep. Curtis McDaniel (D-Smithville) is running in the Special Election to fill the seat of Sen. Ellis.

It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to regain control of the state Senate. Republicans currently hold a 36-12 majority in the 48 member chamber. Senators serve four-year terms, with half of the seats up for election each election cycle. The odd numbered districts will not be on the ballot until 2016. The exception is Senate District 5 which is currently held by Sen. Jerry Ellis who cannot serve the remaining two years of his four-year term because of the 12-year legislative term limits. Ellis was first elected to his Senate seat in 2008 after serving six years in the House of Representatives. The special election to fill the remaining two years of Ellis' term will be held on the same dates as the regularly scheduled elections. Republicans hold 19 of the odd numbered seats not on the ballot this year, with Democrats holding the other 4.

The twenty-four even numbered districts are up for election this year. Seventeen of those are currently held by Republicans, and seven by Democrats. There are 15 incumbents running for reelection, including 13 Republicans and just two Democrats. Including the Special Election for Sen. Ellis's seat, there are 25 seats to be filled this year. Seven Republicans have already been elected because they had no opposition. Three more Republicans will be elected in the Primary Elections, because no Democrats nor Independents are running. When added to the 19 Republican seats not up for election this year, the GOP is guaranteed to have 29 seats.

Meanwhile, only two Democrats, Randy Bass (D-Lawton) and John Sparks (D-Norman), have been elected without opposition. Senate Democrats are also guaranteed to hold the seat being vacated by Sen. McAffrey since only Democrats filed. So, Democrats go into the General Election guaranteed to have only six seats. Even if Democrats won all of the 13 seats that they are running a candidate in the General Election, which is very unlikely, the GOP would still control the Senate with a 29-19 majority. Republicans are expected to win at least enough of the contested seats to maintain their current edge, and picking up several additional seats is considered likely.

It is much the same story for the House chamber, although it is mathematically possible for Democrats to receive a majority. All 101 House seats are up for election each election cycle. Republicans hold a 72-29 majority in the House. Eighty incumbents filed for reelection in the House -- 58 Republicans and 22 Democrats. Because they drew no opponents, 50 members of the House have already been elected. Rep. Jeff Hickman (R-Fairview), the current Speaker of the House, is among the 35 Republicans. Rep. Scott Inman (D-Oklahoma City), who is the House Democrat (Minority) Leader, in among the 15 Democrats. Twelve Republicans and three Democrats will be elected in the Primary Elections, since they have no opposition in the General Election. Therefore, the GOP will go into the General Election guaranteed to have at least 47 seats, just four short of a majority, compared to just 18 for the Democrats. There are 36 seats at stake in the General Election, including one that only a Republican and an Independent are running. Democrats would have to win 33 of the 35 seats that they are fielding a candidate, again very unlikely, to retake control of the House. It is expected that Republicans will finish at least near their current level and could make further gains, especially if GOP candidates higher up on the ballot run strong in the fall election.

The following candidates have been elected to the Senate because they had no opponents:

Randy Bass (D-Lawton)

Rick Brinkley (R-Owasso)

Bill Brown (R-Broken Arrow)

Marty Quinn (R-Claremore)

Eddie Fields (R-Wynona )

David Holt (R-Oklahoma City)

Mike Schulz (R-Altus)

John Sparks (D-Norman)

Anthony Sykes (R-Moore)

The following candidates have been elected to the House because they had no opponents:

John Bennett (R-Sallisaw)